TEP is telling up nothing these days. It's a share that does well in bad times especially but currently it seems to be hugging the EMAs. I feel from technicals it's more likely to take a dive than head back up in the coming months. Lets see... I'll probably wait until 600ish again.
Whilst the EMA is flattening and perhaps edging up, prices don't usually travel in one wave. I feel there is another move down on the way.
If I were more convinced of the longer term upward move it would be around time to buy - as the price is back in the middle of the channel. However, I'm not convinced and everything else is dropping! MACD histogram is also trending down and the RSI is in no man's land.

Stand aside for the coming weeks.
I sold off my TEP trade. As I mentioned before I don't like the fundamentals much any more and so wanted to trade to just the channel system. It started dropping back off my 700 target so that was enough for me.
I had a look at the fundamentals for TEP from a value perspective. I don't like the fact that the current P/E is 22 vs. Ultilities in general being more like 12. Additionally, the dividend yield at around 3% is one of the lowest values it has been for some time - the peak being at around 9%!

However, I've already bought and the share is going up. Whilst the weekly and daily indicators remain strong I'll stay in! I'm watching daily to see if the run remains convincing by a break through 700.
This week TEP broke up and will hopefully set a new positive trend for the coming months. MACD histogram is trending upwards (+). Even though the price is above the EMA (-) I'm hoping for it to stay predominantly above it for the foreseeable future.
The daily also show TEP well and truely working in the upper half of my channel (+) indicating a new trend. MACD suggests some more movement to the upside (+) and finally the RSI have still a decent amount of runway to go before it starts flagging an overbought signal.
Despite the pullback since buying TEP recently, the reasons for buying still hold I believe. The weekly chart is starting to show a turn upwards in the MACD histogram (+) and we seem to be seeing a support level at 600. However my opening trade is against the tide considering the EMA is trending down. I'm hoping for a run to 700.
Starting to see evidence now of the weeklt MACD histogram TEP flattening out which is hopefully signalling the start of an upward  trend for a while (+). Price is still ~7% below EMA (+). However, trend is downward so yes, I am playing a contrarian trade currently.
I'm risking a drop to ~600 given the position of the price within my channel (-). However given the RSI being oversold (-) and the MACD histogram divergence signal which I believe is strong I'm going to stick this one out. 
Weekly looks reasonably well oversold now (+). EMA is now trending down however (-). Worst case scenario is TEP heading south to 530 in my opinion. However ... 
Daily indicators look oversold. Price is at the bottom of my channel (+).  RSI is oversold but it has been for some time now I guess (+). MACD histogram is diverging with the price which is a strong indicator for the upside in my book. I may buy tomorrow if I can get a good price and hopefully nab a 5% run at least.

    To trade


    September 2012
    May 2012
    April 2012
    March 2012
    February 2012
    January 2012
    December 2011